Accurate task duration estimates are key to developing a workable project schedule. But as new professionals join the industry and project teams experience higher levels of turnover, some leaders may be seeing the accuracy of their groups’ task duration estimates go down. Those team members with less experience are encountering greater difficulty estimating how long tasks will take, and the more seasoned project professionals who have stepped into new roles or new sectors are running into unexpected problems.
If you’ve seen a rising rate of inaccuracies among your newer team members’ task duration estimates, or if the estimates flowing into the planning process are routinely too optimistic to be reliable, there are steps you can take to address these issues. Consider some of the most common reasons why it’s more difficult for your newer team members to provide accurate task duration data and then see which steps will help you set your group up for success.
Team members who are new to project management—or in some cases simply new to the organization—often don’t have the background to identify when they’re missing information needed to compose their duration estimates. They may lack the necessary data points to create accurate estimates without knowing it or not realize they don’t yet have a full understanding of the project’s deliverables and scope.
Try this: Put a focus on nailing down the project’s details early in the planning process. Rather than trying to fill in the blanks after the timeline development phase begins—which frequently coincides with other attention-demanding activities such as drafting the project’s budget and identifying resource requirements—this early legwork will give less experienced team members the crucial details they need for more accurate task duration estimates.
The use of historical information could result in poor quality data inputs as your newer team members try to fill any gaps in their knowledge. The past few years have upended everything from contract terms for services to traditional labor and material procurement timelines to the availability of niche expertise. Unfortunately, unless your new project professionals are astute enough to spot the errors lurking in this data, they likely won’t recognize where the existing information is no longer useful, relevant, or accurate.
Try this: Review the historical data your team may access as part of the project planning process. If it’s still reliable, leave it as is. If it’s no longer relevant or accurate, mark it as such. This enables your group to assess the usefulness of data from previous projects and how it may pertain to current initiatives.
Project team members with less experience may not recognize where delays are likely, or where new types of risks are emerging. That means their task duration estimates probably won’t account for potential schedule issues or the amount of effort required to navigate roadblocks. Even experienced project professionals whose careers have focused on initiatives in other areas of the world, for example, might underestimate how long weather-related delays can disrupt activities in your region. Their task duration estimates may include some contingency time for these types of disruptions but still be wildly off the mark.
Try this: Encourage senior team members to call out risks and challenges that are unique to your area of the country, to your industry, or to your organization. An expert facilitator can help conduct a brainstorming session to uncover areas where specific types of tasks or activities could encounter unexpected risks. This two-prong strategy gives newer project team members the opportunity to better understand where their task duration estimates may need some revision to ensure a smooth flow of work.
PMAlliance, Inc uses a team of highly experienced and certified professionals to provide project management consulting, project management training and project portfolio management.
