Every strategic project has assumptions nestled inside. Market demand will increase. Contract negotiations will be favorable. The necessary regulatory approvals will come through on schedule. Applying the right expertise and experience can help to make assumptions more reliable, but sometimes theories don’t survive reality. When that happens, the consequences can devastate an initiative.
Project teams don’t need to accurately predict the future every time. They do need to know how to evaluate, monitor, and adjust assumptions that could affect their projects. They also need to have a plan to respond if a critical assumption starts to crack.
Know What You’re Betting On
Assumptions are everywhere in the beginning. Before your project gets too far along, bring knowledgeable stakeholders together to get a comprehensive view into what’s being forecasted and where the unknowns exist. Then you can narrow down the list and determine which assumptions carry more weight. As you work through your list of beliefs and the things that need to be true for the project plan to work, focus on critical assumptions—the ones that could undo the timeline or budget, or that would fundamentally change the business case if they turn out to be wrong. The assumptions with the potential to doom your project deserve explicit attention, but first you need to identify them.
Identify the Critical Project Assumptions Early
Assumptions can persist deep into the project life cycle. You need to define how the team will know if each is holding up, so you can act before it’s too late. Leading indicators are often the preferred choice. They don’t need to be sophisticated, but they must be measurable to give you the early warning you need to maintain a healthy track, rather than getting blindsided when the assumption fails completely. The most useful indicators are also practical to track and easy for stakeholders to interpret without a lot of instruction. The goal here is to remove as much ambiguity as possible from your assumptions, and determining a clear trigger helps to make them more concrete. If that condition is met, you know you need to pay attention right now.
Develop A Response Plan
Knowing whether a situation bears watching doesn’t actually remove the problem, it just tells you where a wreck might occur. With your indicators and thresholds in hand, the team should agree on which actions are on the table if any of your triggers activate. A small set of options ready to deploy can significantly accelerate your response to the challenge of an off-target assumption and be the difference between keeping the project on a healthy track and veering into jeopardy. It might take just one working session to define a few options for each critical-level assumption and ensure they’re feasible, so don’t risk it. If an indicator crosses that pre-defined threshold, you don’t want to scramble for options. Reduce stress and keep the road ahead clear by doing the work up front.
Review Project Assumptions Throughout the Project Lifecycle
Because predictions have uncertainty baked into them, it’s necessary to monitor them as the project moves forward. Consider adding a five-minute discussion within existing steering committee or project review sessions to do a quick assumption check-in. What’s changed since the last time anyone looked at the assumptions and their expected effects on the project? What do the indicators tell us today? Have things changed enough that we should revise those indicators or update the response options the team has in their toolbox? Recurring, structured reviews allow stakeholders to maintain awareness and to recognize early signs that assumptions may either be gaining in certainty or going off course.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a project assumption?
A project assumption is a condition believed to be true during planning but not yet verified. Assumptions allow projects to move forward despite uncertainty.
How are project assumptions different from project risks?
An assumption is something expected to happen or remain true. A risk is the possibility that an event could negatively affect project objectives. Incorrect assumptions often become project risks when reality differs from expectations.
How often should project assumptions be reviewed?
Critical assumptions should be reviewed regularly throughout project execution, ideally during recurring project status meetings or steering committee reviews.
What makes an assumption “critical”?
A critical assumption is one that could significantly affect project cost, schedule, scope, quality, or business value if it proves incorrect.
Why should assumptions have measurable indicators?
Measurable indicators provide early warning when assumptions begin to change, allowing project teams to respond before significant project impacts occur.